Rugby World Cup 2027: Japan drawn into Pool E
The pool draw for the Rugby World Cup 2027, to be held in Australia, has taken place in Sydney. The Brave Blossoms (Japan) will compete in Pool E alongside France, the United States and Samoa. The tournament will run from 1 October to 13 November 2027 across several Australian cities, and for the first time it will feature a 24-team, six-pool format.
Under the new format, each pool consists of four teams playing a round-robin. After the pool stage, the top two teams from each pool automatically qualify for the Round of 16, and they are joined by the four best third-placed teams across all pools. For Japan, this places even greater emphasis on two things: securing bonus points in matches they win and avoiding heavy defeats even when they lose.
Japan’s head-to-head record against Pool E opponents
Japan’s overall record against their Pool E opponents (approximate figures as of the end of 2025) is shown below. On paper there are match-ups where Japan are clearly behind, but this is a team that has produced major upsets on the World Cup stage before. There is every chance that their performance will exceed what the bare numbers suggest.
| Opponent | Matches | Japan wins | Japan losses | Draws | Japan win rate (approx.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 13 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 0% |
| United States | 24 | 10 | 13 | 1 | approx. 42% |
| Samoa | 16 | 5 | 11 | 0 | approx. 31% |
France: one-off shot at a title contender
France have been regarded as one of the favourites at recent Six Nations campaigns and at the last World Cup. Their overall strength – squad depth, set-piece power, and a back three capable of breaking games open – makes them the standout team in Pool E. Japan are still searching for their first win against France in Test matches, but they did earn a draw away from home in 2017, a reminder that they can compete when they execute their plan for 80 minutes.
If Japan are to pull off an upset against France, they will need to rely on relentless defence and a smart kicking game to drag the contest into a low-scoring battle. Keeping penalties to an absolute minimum and not allowing France to accumulate easy three-point shots at goal will be key. If Japan can stay within striking distance going into the final stages, the door could open for a dramatic finish.
United States: winning the physical battle through discipline and tempo
Japan’s overall record against the United States is close to even, and in recent years they have increasingly been able to win by larger margins thanks to improved game management. However, the USA remain a physically imposing side, with big forwards, strong contact work, and pressure from mauls and kick-off receptions – all of which make them a difficult opponent in a pure physical contest.
For Japan, the key will be to impose their strengths in discipline and high-tempo attacking rugby. That means quick support around the breakdown, continuous, accurate phase play, and sharp kick-chase organisation both in attack and defence. It is highly likely that the two teams will meet in warm-up fixtures before 2027, making scouting and information-gathering a crucial part of Japan’s preparation.
Samoa: Japan on top recently, but one big play can flip the game
Although Samoa lead the all-time head-to-head against Japan, the Brave Blossoms have won all three World Cup meetings in 2015, 2019 and 2023, controlling the big stage encounters in recent years. Even so, Samoa remain a very dangerous opponent with the ability to change the momentum of a match in an instant through offloads after contact and counter-attacks from broken play.
To turn this fixture into a “must-win” that they can safely tick off, Japan will need to be rock solid under the high ball, make smart decisions on kick returns, and use strong second- and third-man tackles to prevent careless offloads. Mental management will also be vital to avoid chains of penalties once the pressure ramps up. It is the kind of game where “the team that makes fewer mistakes usually wins”, and within Pool E this may be the one fixture Japan can least afford to drop.
Japan’s Round of 16 scenarios in the new format
In the 24-team, six-pool format, the top two teams from each pool and the best four third-placed teams advance to the Round of 16. For Japan, the baseline scenario is to win both direct clashes with the United States and Samoa. On top of that, the number of bonus points they can pick up – including in the match against France – will be decisive.
The ideal scenario is to beat both the USA and Samoa and also land a famous win over France, putting Japan in the mix to top the pool with three victories. Even if they finish with two wins and one loss, there is a realistic chance of progressing as either a second-placed team or one of the best third-placed sides, depending on points difference and bonus points.
Given their history of upsetting South Africa in 2015 and reaching the quarter-finals at their home World Cup in 2019, this Pool E draw can be described as “far from easy, but still a group in which a Round of 16 spot is a realistic target” for Japan.
With less than two years to go, all eyes will be on how the Brave Blossoms refine their game model and which new faces emerge. The way they choose to approach three very different opponents – France, the USA and Samoa – will be one of the key storylines on the road to Rugby World Cup 2027.
